Texas has not voted blue in a statewide race for more than thirty years. That long streak faces a serious test this year. A new Fox News poll reveals the Senate race is deadlocked. Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are tied at 49 percent each. This comes among likely voters in the Lone Star State. The race to replace Senator John Cornyn is incredibly close. Cornyn lost the Republican primary to Paxton earlier this year. President Trump backed Paxton in that primary contest. The poll was released on Wednesday of this week. It shows a shift from last month’s numbers. Talarico was up by two points in September. Now the race is even. Paxton has consolidated support among conservative voters. He also gained ground with rural voters and suburban women. These groups backed Cornyn in the primary election.
Paxton is falling short of Trump’s 2024 margins slightly. However he has strengthened his support among men and women. Talarico has lost a small amount of support in those groups. Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters. He also dominates among urban voters and young people under thirty. Women with a college degree prefer Talarico by twenty-three points. Paxton’s strongest groups include White evangelical Christians. He also performs well with White men without college degrees. Rural voters and those age sixty-five and up back Paxton.
Hispanic voters are swinging back toward the Democrats. They favored Trump by one point in 2024. Now they favor Talarico by thirty points. This key voting bloc prefers Democratic control of the Senate. Texans overall choose Republicans for Senate control by four points. This is up from one point in September. Democrats show higher enthusiasm for this election. Sixty-nine percent are extremely interested in voting. Only sixty-one percent of Republicans feel that way. Those highly interested voters back Talarico by seven points.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted the race hinges on turnout. He asked if disaffected Republicans will show up to vote. He also wondered if they will vote for Paxton. Views of Talarico are net positive by just one point. Paxton’s ratings are underwater by seventeen points. Voters worry Talarico is too liberal. They also worry Paxton is too close to Trump. More voters say they are worse off financially than better off. Those worse off back Talarico by forty-five points. Governor Greg Abbott holds a five point lead in his race. He edges Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the governor’s contest. Abbott has a positive job approval rating among Texans.