New York is a blue stronghold. Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly two to one. You would expect the governor to run away with the race. The numbers do not show that. A new poll reveals a tightening contest. Republican Bruce Blakeman is catching up. He trails Governor Kathy Hochul by only nine points. This is a single-digit deficit. The gap was ten points just last month. Six weeks remain before the election. The shift is significant for a red candidate.
The data comes from Siena College. They surveyed 1,144 likely voters in the state. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 points. Hochul holds 50 percent support among these voters. Blakeman sits at 41 percent. This is the fourth most populous state in the nation. Hochul seeks a second full four-year term. She took office in August 2021. This followed the resignation of Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo faced multiple scandals during his third term.
Steven Greenberg leads the polling group at Siena. He noted the current dynamic is unusual. Four years ago, Hochul led by seventeen points. Her opponent then was Lee Zeldin. Zeldin closed that gap significantly. He lost by only six points in 2022. Blakeman is moving faster early in the cycle. He is the Nassau County executive. Long Island is a key region for him.
Blakeman performs well with independent voters. He leads Hochul by five points there. He also dominates his own party base. Eighty-eight percent of Republicans support him. Only eight percent back the governor. Hochul leads among Democrats by eighty-one to eleven. Greenberg called this a strong showing for the GOP nominee.
Blakeman credits his policy proposals for the gain. He promises to cut income taxes by historic margins. He also wants to slash electric bills in half. Voters are hearing these specific plans. Hochul has resisted President Donald Trump’s agenda. This resistance has raised her standing recently. Her favorability ratings have turned positive.
Endorsements play a mixed role in this race. Trump endorsed Blakeman in February. Half of likely voters view this as a negative. A quarter of Republicans feel the same way. On the other side, Zohran Mamdani endorsed Hochul. Mamdani is the first socialist mayor of New York City. Fifty percent of voters see this as a plus. Thirty percent disagree with the endorsement.
Despite the closing gap, doubt remains. Two-thirds of voters think Hochul will win. This includes thirty-seven percent of Republicans. They expect the incumbent to hold the seat. Fox News contacted the Hochul campaign for comment. They did not receive a response. The poll used telephone and text-to-web methods. The results reflect current sentiment in New York.
Blakeman aims to break a long Republican drought. No Republican has won governor here in nearly twenty-five years. The race is not over. The numbers show a competitive field. Voters are weighing policy against party loyalty. The final six weeks will define the outcome. Both candidates have room to move. The path to victory is still open for either side.