You might think buying American-made goods protects your wallet. New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York says otherwise. The study shows that prices for US-made products rose because of tariffs. This happened even though the goods were not imported. The findings challenge the idea that tariffs only hurt foreign sellers.
The report covers the period leading into early 2026. It finds that prices for many everyday items would have fallen. Without the tariff policy, costs for consumers would likely drop. Instead, prices across the studied goods actually increased. The researchers estimated a 2.9 percentage point rise in prices. This number represents the direct impact of the trade policy.
The cost was not spread evenly between imports and domestic items. About two-thirds of the price increase came from imported goods. This part of the data matches common expectations. However, the remaining one-third came from products made in the United States. This means American manufacturers passed higher costs onto shoppers. The tariffs made raw materials and components more expensive. These inputs are often imported but used in local factories.
The White House argues that foreign exporters pay the tariffs. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital that the policy benefits workers. She claimed the agenda revitalizes American manufacturing. She stated that the costs are borne by those relying on US access. The administration maintains that the strategy reduces the trade deficit.
Economists see a different picture on the ground. Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute warned that relief is unlikely. He noted that tariffs have already increased prices slightly. He added that companies may pass even more costs to consumers. Prices could stay flat or rise further as businesses adjust. Lincicome said price declines are improbable while tariffs remain in place.
The timing of these price hikes matters for voters. The midterm elections are one month away. Campaigns focused on lowering the cost of living. Lincicome pointed out that raising prices hurts political standing. Voters may react negatively to higher costs at the register. The inflationary impact of the tariffs has largely peaked. However, prices will remain higher than they would have been otherwise.
Energy costs add another layer of pressure on families. Lincicome called this a double whammy for consumers. Tariffs raised product prices while energy prices spiked. He linked the energy surge to geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Higher diesel costs affect transportation for trucks and trains. These logistics costs act like an additional tax on goods. The expense of moving products to stores increases further. This final cost is added to the price tag you hold. The data provides a clear map of where the money went.